We find that the investment costs in wind and solar power have a small positive impact on Norwegian power prices. Similarly, the cost of technologies that increase electricity consumption, such as heat pumps, have negative impacts.
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Electricity prices remain strongly affected by fossil fuel costs to 2040. The 2040 power price in Norway is modelled to be 39 ± 4 €/MWh. Market value of Norwegian hydropower is 34% higher than the average power price. Seasonal patterns for solar PV give <3% probability of revenues higher than the LCOE.
Solar PV has an average market value as low as 20 ± 3 €/MWh. Despite low LCOE estimates, solar PV does not look like an attractive option for the future Norwegian power market, given our model assumptions.
In 2021, Norway had an electricity production of 157 TWh, of which 91% was from hydropower, 8% from onshore wind, and <1% from thermal sources (NVE, 2021b). This shows that the Norwegian generation mix is already dominated by renewable energy. In normal weather years, Norway exports around 19 TWh of electricity to neighbouring countries.
The 2040 power price in Norway is modelled to be 39 ± 4 €/MWh. Market value of Norwegian hydropower is 34% higher than the average power price. Seasonal patterns for solar PV give <3% probability of revenues higher than the LCOE. On/offshore wind has a 50%/1% probability of having revenues higher than the LCOE.
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However, growth assumes that electricity prices are low enough. Without new Norwegian electricity production, excluding the projects that are currently under development, high electricity prices will practically limit consumption growth to an estimated 25-30 TWh.
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