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Rare cases of sponsored projects are clearly indicated. An increased supply of lithium will be needed to meet future expected demand growth for lithium-ion batteries for transportation and energy storage.
An increased supply of lithium will be needed to meet future expected demand growth for lithium-ion batteries for transportation and energy storage. Lithium demand has tripled since 2017 and is set to grow tenfold by 2050 under the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario.
In the midstream sector, approximately 65% of the world’s lithium processing capacity is concentrated in China, solidifying the country’s dominant role. ( See Figure 2.) Chile and Argentina account for 29% and 5% of processing, respectively, focusing on in-country conversion of lithium from brines to lithium carbonate.
Currently, the lithium market is adding demand growth of 250,000–300,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent (tLCE) per year, or about half the total lithium supply in 2021 of 540,000 tLCE. For comparison, demand growth in the oil market is projected to be approximately 1% to 2% over the next five years.
Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, an information provider on the lithium-ion battery supply chain, estimates a 300,000 tLCE supply deficit by 2030 in its business-as-usual demand scenario. Albemarle, one of the largest lithium producers, estimates a 500,000 tLCE deficit by then.
Lithium, nickel, manganese, and cobalt are of particular significance for the dominant lithium-ion battery (LIB) technology, primarily relying on lithium iron phosphate (LFP) and lithium nickel manganese cobalt oxide (NMC) cathodes. Geographically, the global supply is heavily reliant on China with competition expected to intensify.
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